Tricky times ahead for the budget and longer term

By Madoc Batcup

Published Thursday 28 January 2016

The torrid market conditions of January have created a difficult context for UK policy formation as the March budget looms.  The increasing level of global indebtedness, the uncertain economic prospects in China and the precipitous fall in oil prices have all made the larger economic context even more complex to navigate.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research launched their World Economic League Table 2016 on the 26th January 2016 which provided incisive analysis, both with regard to the prospects of the year ahead and also in respect to longer term views, as to where growth is likely to come from in the future.  The presentations illustrate a challenging environment for the Chancellor’s next budget, where lower UK GDP growth rates are still very dependent on consumption, and the international economic challenges such as China, and political challenges such as Grexit and Brexit and the turbulence in the Middle East indicate even lower growth rates in the near future.

In the longer term India remains one of the key major potential opportunities for growth, and Asia generally is anticipated to substantially increase its share of global GDP.  This continues to have fundamental implications for international growth strategies.  By kind permission of CEBR the presentations are available through the following link and through the use of the password WELT2016: